WTA Madrid has been a terrific event with many exciting games, but we are now down to four guys.
The good news is that I’ve discovered betting value on both of the WTA’s Madrid semifinal matches.
Continue reading for two plays to consider in the Madrid semifinals.
Ons Jabeur (-193) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova (+155)
7:30 a.m. ET
Ekaterina Alexandrova’s hot streak continued on Wednesday. Alexandrova defeated Amanda Anisimova 6-4, 6-3 to go to the semifinals.
Alexandrova’s first serve was on fire against Anisimova, as she won 75% of her first-serve points. The Russian’s tenacity paid off on return, as she won 54% of her return points and broke Anisimova’s serve six times in 10 service games.
Alexandrova once again displayed outstanding control and aggressiveness. She has brought a good balance of aggressive shot-making and patience within rallies since Miami. Alexandrova created points extremely efficiently against Anisimova, allowing her to strike past the Americans successfully.
Ons Jabeur is playing fantastic tennis
In the Spanish capital, Ons Jabeur is playing fantastic tennis. Jabeur beat Simona Halep 6-3, 6-2 in her most recent triumph.
Against Halep, Jabeur earned 66 percent of her service points, including 78 percent of her first serves. Jabeur won 50 percent of her return points and four times broke Halep’s serve.
The world No. 10 uses her variety to keep opponents off-balance, including a low-bouncing backhand slice and drop shots. Jabeur, on the other hand, isn’t only about type; she also nails her marks on serve and can utilize her forehand, in particular, to force past her opponents from the baseline.
Alexandrova is in great shape right now. She patiently waits in rallies until she has the chance to strike, and she understands when it’s time to smash massive groundstrokes for wins. She also possesses a powerful first serve, which she can use to set up short balls and get free points.
Jabeur’s variety and forehand are top and will make Alexandrova uncomfortable at times, but in the Madrid altitude, with the Russian striking the ball so cleanly and precisely, I don’t believe Alexandrova will let Jabeur play her game.
Alexandrova’s degree of controlled aggressiveness will dictate how the match is played.
Pick: Alexandrova +3.5 games (-122)
Jessica Pegula (-136) vs. Jil Teichmann (+110)
3 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula’s quarterfinal triumph in WTA Madrid demonstrated her strong tennis IQ. Pegula won 6-4, 6-2 against Sara Sorribes Tormo.
Despite Sorribes Tormo serving 78 percent of her first serves, Pegula won 64 percent of her return points and broke serve eight times in nine Sorribes Tormo service games. Pegula made a point of going after the Sorribes Tormo serve.
Her poise on the court in the face of Sorribes Tormo’s outstanding defense was inspirational to behold. The American did an excellent job of waiting for her moment and was unexpected in her shot placement. Pegula’s crucial stroke in this match was her backhand down the line, which regularly surprised Sorribes Tormo.
Jil Teichmann is enjoying her finest tournament of the season
In Madrid, Jil Teichmann is enjoying her finest tournament of the season. She advanced to the semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory against Anhelina Kalinina.
Teichmann won 52 percent of her return points versus Kalinina, including 53 percent of her first-serve return points. Teichmann broke Kalinina’s serve five times and never let her have a footing in the match.
The lefty has won four straight matches in a row, all in straight sets. This is the first time she’s won more than two matches in a row this season. Teichmann’s style is hard on clay, and she can achieve consistent depth on her groundstrokes, which limits her opponents’ ability to attack. Furthermore, Teichmann has adapted well to the altitude in WTA Madrid, playing with controlled aggressiveness at a high level.
Teichmann has been playing outstanding tennis this week, and she has been extremely consistent from the baseline. Pegula, on the other hand, should be accustomed to needing to be patient and wait for her chance to attack after having recently played Sorribes Tormo.
Furthermore, Pegula’s backhand was outstanding today, both cross-court and up the line. As a result, I’m convinced that Teichmann’s strong cross-court forehands into her backhand won’t phase her.
Pegula also performed well in the cat-and-mouse points against Sorribes Tormo, which will be crucial in her match against Teichmann.
Pick: Pegula ML (-136)